Use of expert opinion elicitation to quantify the internal erosion process in dams
نویسنده
چکیده
SYNOPSIS. Expert Opinion Elicitation is a generic term for a number of similar techniques that have been developed to provide quantitative estimates of parameters which cannot readily be quantified through direct measurement or other sampling techniques. The initial motivation for their development was the 1986 Challenger Shuttle disaster in the space industry, and subsequent applications have spread into many other areas: the techniques have been widely used in the nuclear industry, for instance. One particular procedure consists of obtaining responses to a set of quantitative questions from a number of experts, including the range of uncertainty in each response, and then combining these through a weighting procedure to obtain a pooled best estimate of the parameters of interest.
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